Fathomratings

The numbers behind the number

2026 Season · Through week 6
Previous weeks
172 games graded

Every number on this page was logged before kickoff and has not been edited since. 3 weeks is 172 games. A spread edge needs on the order of 54,000 games to demonstrate, so nothing here is evidence of one — these are the records, with their confidence intervals and the market's number beside them, published whether they flatter the model or not.

Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Combined

Week 6 · 58 games

Against the spread

22–34–2

39.3%, 95% confidence interval 28%–52%. -14.00 units at −110. Break-even is 52.4%.

Straight-up winner

34–24

58.6%. Picking every market favourite on the same games would have returned 67.2%.

Average margin miss

13.17

points per game, against the market's 11.55 on the same games. Difference +1.62, p = 0.03.

How far off the final margin was

Market spread11.55

Fathom projection13.17

Mean absolute error in points, same games, lower is better. A paired t-test on these two columns gives p = 0.03 — a real difference.

Share of games inside a given margin

Model within 14 points64%

Market within 14 points71%

Model within 7 points29%

Model within 3 points17%

Model bias was +0.03 points — a lean toward the home side.

The model and the market named different winners in 7 of 58 games, and the model was right in 1. That handful of games is the entire straight-up difference between the two — on the other 51 they agreed, so both were graded identically. A sign test on those 7 gives p = 0.99.

Every game, worst miss first

Wk	Game	Projected	Market	Final	Miss	SU	ATS
6	Buffalo at Toledo	17.6–48.1	+20.5	23–8	45.5	×	×
6	San Diego State at Oregon State	19.5–26.4	+14.5	14–66	45.1	✓	×
6	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	33.2–30.1	-9.8	52–17	31.9	✓	×
6	Minnesota at Purdue	29.8–26.6	-2.5	13–41	31.2	×	×
6	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	21.8–19.6	+7.5	10–38	30.2	×	×
6	South Carolina at Florida	28.0–39.1	+12.5	38–19	30.1	×	✓
6	Wake Forest at NC State	31.4–30.7	-4.0	38–14	23.3	✓	×
6	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	13.4–32.5	+3.5	21–17	23.1	×	×
6	Florida State at Louisville	30.2–31.5	+3.5	20–44	22.7	✓	×
6	Houston at Kansas State	32.1–33.3	+2.5	35–16	20.2	×	✓
6	Sam Houston at Liberty	20.1–31.9	+13.5	3–35	20.2	✓	×
6	Missouri State at Western Kentucky	28.6–30.8	+2.5	13–34	18.8	✓	×
6	Texas A&M at Missouri	26.0–28.3	+3.5	6–27	18.7	✓	×
6	James Madison at Georgia Southern	39.4–18.6	-7.5	27–24	17.8	✓	×
6	UCF at Oklahoma State	24.8–22.0	+8.5	28–42	16.8	×	×
6	Southern Miss at Troy	22.4–27.2	+10.0	34–55	16.2	✓	×
6	New Mexico State at Florida International	17.2–20.1	+6.5	3–22	16.1	✓	×
6	UConn at Temple	29.3–31.1	+3.5	34–20	15.8	×	✓
6	Arizona at West Virginia	33.9–28.6	-3.5	52–31	15.7	✓	✓
6	Nevada at UTEP	28.7–27.1	-9.5	30–13	15.4	✓	×
6	UCLA at Oregon	30.0–42.2	+11.5	17–15	14.2	×	×
6	Old Dominion at App State	23.1–30.0	+9.5	10–3	13.9	×	✓
6	Duke at Georgia Tech	33.3–22.5	-7.0	25–28	13.8	×	×
6	Virginia Tech at California	34.9–26.1	-9.0	20–25	13.8	×	✓
6	South Alabama at Arkansas State	27.5–34.1	+1.5	56–49	13.5	×	×
6	Texas at Oklahoma	19.8–9.4	-8.5	24–27	13.4	×	×
6	Louisiana at Louisiana Tech	22.6–36.6	+3.0	31–32	13.1	✓	×
6	Wyoming at San José State	12.5–21.6	+6.5	16–13	12.1	×	×
6	LSU at Kentucky	32.3–21.4	-8.5	34–35	11.8	×	×
6	Iowa at Washington	23.2–17.8	+3.0	41–24	11.6	✓	✓
6	Georgia at Alabama	32.7–40.7	+1.5	20–17	11.1	×	×
6	Kent State at Western Michigan	10.4–30.7	+13.5	7–38	10.8	✓	✓
6	USC at Penn State	29.2–31.9	+1.5	31–23	10.7	×	×
6	Central Michigan at Ohio	19.5–26.0	+3.0	14–31	10.5	✓	✓
6	North Dakota State at UNLV	25.7–22.0	-3.0	7–13	9.7	×	×
6	Air Force at Northern Illinois	31.4–19.8	-7.5	28–7	9.5	✓	✓
6	Indiana at Nebraska	34.6–23.1	-7.2	20–17	8.5	✓	×
6	Syracuse at Virginia	20.2–31.6	+9.5	25–28	8.4	✓	×
6	South Florida at UTSA	28.3–28.1	+7.0	24–31	7.2	×	–
6	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	19.3–25.5	-3.0	27–26	7.2	×	✓
6	Ball State at Northwestern	6.2–44.3	+36.5	14–45	7.1	✓	×
6	Tulsa at Navy	20.8–22.0	+2.5	26–34	6.9	✓	×
6	Tennessee at Arkansas	37.1–23.3	-13.5	24–17	6.8	✓	×
6	Coastal Carolina at Marshall	27.7–28.5	+3.0	27–21	6.8	×	✓
6	Stanford at Notre Dame	7.6–52.3	+38.5	7–58	6.3	✓	✓
6	Boise State at Fresno State	25.5–24.1	-6.5	38–31	5.6	✓	×
6	Maryland at Ohio State	11.5–45.2	+34.5	16–45	4.7	✓	✓
6	Tulane at Army	15.1–22.0	+3.0	17–20	3.8	✓	–
6	Kansas at Utah	19.1–39.0	+15.5	24–41	3.0	✓	✓
6	Illinois at Michigan State	22.4–24.2	-2.5	38–37	2.8	×	✓
6	Hawai'i at Arizona State	17.3–37.9	+20.5	12–30	2.6	✓	×
6	UAB at Memphis	18.2–40.8	+14.0	13–38	2.4	✓	✓
6	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	26.7–23.6	-2.5	20–19	2.1	✓	×
6	Washington State at Utah State	18.6–18.3	+5.5	16–17	1.2	×	✓
6	Rice at East Carolina	13.9–29.0	+10.0	12–28	0.9	✓	✓
6	Iowa State at BYU	18.9–32.3	+10.5	10–24	0.6	✓	✓
6	Charlotte at North Texas	16.9–56.4	+28.5	10–50	0.4	✓	✓
6	Eastern Michigan at Akron	28.4–26.5	-7.0	25–23	0.1	✓	✓

Week 5 · 56 games

Against the spread

30–26

53.6%, 95% confidence interval 41%–66%. +1.27 units at −110. Break-even is 52.4%.

Straight-up winner

44–12

78.6%. Picking every market favourite on the same games would have returned 69.6%.

Average margin miss

13.89

points per game, against the market's 13.35 on the same games. Difference +0.55, p = 0.34.

How far off the final margin was

Market spread13.35

Fathom projection13.89

Mean absolute error in points, same games, lower is better. A paired t-test on these two columns gives p = 0.34 — not a distinguishable difference.

Share of games inside a given margin

Model within 14 points59%

Market within 14 points66%

Model within 7 points38%

Model within 3 points18%

Model bias was -1.61 points — a lean against the home side.

The model and the market named different winners in 7 of 56 games, and the model was right in 6. That handful of games is the entire straight-up difference between the two — on the other 49 they agreed, so both were graded identically. A sign test on those 7 gives p = 0.06.

Every game, worst miss first

Wk	Game	Projected	Market	Final	Miss	SU	ATS
5	Baylor at Arizona State	23.8–28.2	+3.5	55–19	40.5	×	×
5	Stanford at Wake Forest	18.4–33.5	+12.5	3–57	39.0	✓	✓
5	Virginia at Florida State	29.1–23.8	-2.5	7–38	36.3	×	×
5	Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts	18.6–29.0	+5.5	38–14	34.3	×	×
5	Florida at Missouri	35.3–29.3	-4.0	17–45	34.0	×	×
5	Middle Tennessee at Kansas	14.4–36.3	+20.5	0–55	33.2	✓	✓
5	Memphis at Charlotte	40.3–18.6	-21.0	59–8	29.3	✓	✓
5	Oregon State at Colorado State	34.5–32.5	-4.0	56–26	28.0	✓	×
5	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	11.2–34.8	+14.5	24–20	27.6	×	×
5	Old Dominion at Georgia State	27.6–32.1	-1.5	10–42	27.4	✓	✓
5	Cincinnati at Arizona	30.4–30.9	+7.0	7–34	26.6	✓	×
5	Penn State at Northwestern	25.7–21.7	-3.0	13–34	25.1	×	×
5	Alabama at Mississippi State	41.7–33.0	-6.0	56–23	24.3	✓	✓
5	Michigan State at Wisconsin	17.6–22.9	+10.0	3–31	22.7	✓	×
5	UTEP at New Mexico	14.1–46.6	+22.5	7–61	21.5	✓	✓
5	Purdue at Illinois	27.7–41.7	+10.0	24–17	21.0	×	×
5	Fresno State at Washington State	20.0–19.9	-1.5	26–6	19.9	✓	×
5	Notre Dame at North Carolina	36.9–6.4	-21.5	37–26	19.5	✓	×
5	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	29.0–31.4	+1.5	13–34	18.5	✓	✓
5	Akron at Central Michigan	19.3–25.0	+6.0	17–41	18.3	✓	×
5	Temple at South Florida	24.0–36.1	+6.0	17–13	16.2	×	×
5	Western Michigan at Buffalo	32.1–14.8	-15.5	20–17	14.3	✓	×
5	Toledo at Ball State	46.9–17.8	-19.5	39–24	14.1	✓	×
5	Liberty at Delaware	26.7–24.3	-7.0	30–14	13.6	✓	×
5	Maryland at Nebraska	21.6–34.7	+13.5	23–48	11.9	✓	×
5	UTSA at Rice	35.6–22.9	-10.5	16–14	10.7	✓	×
5	North Texas at Tulsa	35.5–24.0	+2.5	45–44	10.5	✓	✓
5	Marshall at James Madison	12.7–50.4	+16.5	17–45	9.7	✓	✓
5	Michigan at Minnesota	25.6–22.0	-6.5	14–20	9.6	×	✓
5	Washington at USC	25.0–37.8	+9.5	21–25	8.8	✓	×
5	Boston College at SMU	15.8–33.1	+20.5	16–25	8.4	✓	✓
5	Ohio at Kent State	35.4–24.1	-5.5	13–10	8.3	✓	×
5	San José State at Hawai'i	23.6–27.8	+3.0	20–16	8.2	×	×
5	Arkansas at Texas A&M	20.0–38.7	+14.5	7–34	8.2	✓	✓
5	West Virginia at Iowa State	22.6–33.7	+1.5	42–45	8.1	✓	✓
5	Miami at Clemson	38.5–17.1	-17.5	41–13	6.6	✓	✓
5	Ohio State at Iowa	28.4–17.5	-13.5	31–14	6.2	✓	×
5	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	25.2–24.3	-1.5	31–24	6.1	✓	×
5	California at UNLV	22.2–24.2	+2.5	31–39	6.0	✓	×
5	UCF at Houston	27.2–31.1	+11.5	17–27	6.0	✓	✓
5	Kentucky at South Carolina	24.5–29.3	+3.5	35–34	5.7	×	×
5	Indiana at Rutgers	44.5–17.0	-23.5	47–15	4.5	✓	✓
5	UL Monroe at South Alabama	21.5–42.7	+14.5	35–52	4.3	✓	✓
5	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	32.6–26.4	+4.5	35–33	4.2	✓	✓
5	Texas Tech at Colorado	34.2–15.7	-14.5	29–7	3.5	✓	✓
5	Wyoming at North Dakota State	4.1–29.0	+20.5	0–28	3.1	✓	✓
5	Arkansas State at Louisiana	21.2–27.0	+6.5	20–23	2.7	✓	✓
5	Syracuse at UConn	27.3–28.8	-5.5	42–41	2.5	×	✓
5	Auburn at Tennessee	25.7–33.5	+7.5	14–24	2.1	✓	✓
5	Army at Louisiana Tech	25.5–29.5	-3.5	29–31	2.0	✓	✓
5	Navy at Air Force	29.0–32.6	+2.5	9–14	1.4	✓	✓
5	Louisville at NC State	34.6–36.4	-6.0	28–31	1.2	✓	✓
5	Vanderbilt at Georgia	19.2–44.2	+25.5	14–38	1.1	✓	✓
5	Utah State at Boise State	11.9–31.6	+21.0	18–37	0.8	✓	✓
5	Texas State at San Diego State	28.6–30.2	-4.0	29–31	0.4	✓	✓
5	BYU at TCU	28.7–21.8	-6.5	17–10	0.1	✓	✓

Week 4 · 58 games

Against the spread

28–29–1

49.1%, 95% confidence interval 37%–62%. -3.55 units at −110. Break-even is 52.4%.

Straight-up winner

47–11

81.0%. Picking every market favourite on the same games would have returned 82.8%.

Average margin miss

11.61

points per game, against the market's 11.44 on the same games. Difference +0.18, p = 0.35.

How far off the final margin was

Market spread11.44

Fathom projection11.61

Mean absolute error in points, same games, lower is better. A paired t-test on these two columns gives p = 0.35 — not a distinguishable difference.

Share of games inside a given margin

Model within 14 points62%

Market within 14 points62%

Model within 7 points36%

Model within 3 points22%

Model bias was +2.35 points — a lean toward the home side.

The model and the market named different winners in 1 of 58 games, and the model was right in 0. That handful of games is the entire straight-up difference between the two — on the other 57 they agreed, so both were graded identically. A sign test on those 1 gives p = 1.00.

Every game, worst miss first

Wk	Game	Projected	Market	Final	Miss	SU	ATS
4	UCLA at Maryland	-2.4	-1.8	54–3	48.6	✓	✓
4	Massachusetts at Sacramento State	-4.1	-4.5	35–6	24.9	✓	×
4	Missouri State at SMU	+34.4	+34.8	24–34	24.4	✓	✓
4	James Madison at Old Dominion	-3.6	-6.0	46–20	22.4	✓	×
4	Delaware at Virginia	+18.1	+19.5	3–42	20.9	✓	×
4	Ole Miss at Florida	+3.3	+3.5	28–52	20.7	✓	×
4	Tulsa at Arkansas	+7.7	+6.8	6–34	20.3	✓	✓
4	Texas A&M at LSU	+9.3	+9.8	6–35	19.7	✓	×
4	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+2.6	+2.5	41–24	19.6	×	×
4	San Diego State at Toledo	+5.8	+3.0	16–41	19.2	✓	✓
4	Hawai'i at Wyoming	-1.7	-3.0	10–27	18.7	×	✓
4	Oregon State at UTEP	-7.4	-10.2	33–7	18.6	✓	×
4	Louisiana at Charlotte	-8.8	-10.0	34–7	18.2	✓	×
4	South Carolina at Alabama	+12.8	+13.5	18–49	18.2	✓	×
4	UNLV at Akron	-10.9	-13.5	38–10	17.1	✓	×
4	Boise State at Western Michigan	-8.0	-7.0	32–7	17.0	✓	✓
4	Oklahoma at Georgia	+11.4	+13.8	13–41	16.6	✓	×
4	Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe	-11.6	-13.5	45–17	16.4	✓	×
4	Clemson at California	+2.1	-1.2	24–10	16.1	×	×
4	Southern Miss at Tulane	+18.0	+18.5	21–24	15.0	✓	✓
4	Wake Forest at Louisville	+11.9	+12.5	30–27	14.9	×	✓
4	Liberty at Coastal Carolina	-2.2	-2.5	34–17	14.8	✓	×
4	Northwestern at Indiana	+19.8	+20.8	23–29	13.8	✓	✓
4	Wisconsin at Penn State	+8.8	+9.8	24–20	12.8	×	✓
4	Notre Dame at Purdue	-26.2	-27.8	49–10	12.8	✓	×
4	Nebraska at Michigan State	-5.2	-5.5	31–13	12.8	✓	×
4	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-11.5	-12.8	42–18	12.5	✓	×
4	Minnesota at Washington	+9.4	+10.0	27–24	12.4	×	✓
4	Kansas State at Cincinnati	-7.1	-6.2	26–31	12.1	×	×
4	Navy at UAB	-7.7	-7.0	20–24	11.7	×	×
4	Northern Illinois at Georgia State	+10.3	+10.0	14–35	10.7	✓	✓
4	TCU at UCF	-2.6	-3.2	13–21	10.6	×	✓
4	Georgia Tech at Stanford	-3.5	-3.5	27–34	10.5	×	✓
4	Central Michigan at Miami	+38.9	+41.2	3–52	10.1	✓	×
4	Oregon at USC	-4.1	-3.0	41–27	9.9	✓	✓
4	South Florida at Bowling Green	-17.0	-17.5	14–6	9.0	✓	✓
4	Utah at Iowa State	-6.5	-7.8	31–17	7.5	✓	×
4	Ball State at Kent State	+6.0	+3.0	13–26	7.0	✓	✓
4	Iowa at Michigan	+5.8	+5.5	20–19	6.8	×	×
4	Virginia Tech at Boston College	-12.9	-14.0	21–14	5.9	✓	✓
4	Troy at Utah State	+6.1	+3.0	10–21	4.9	✓	✓
4	South Alabama at Kentucky	+19.4	+20.5	21–45	4.6	✓	×
4	Houston at Georgia Southern	-18.5	-18.8	42–28	4.5	✓	✓
4	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+10.2	+9.5	15–21	4.2	✓	×
4	Kennesaw State at Arkansas State	+6.3	+5.8	14–17	3.3	✓	×
4	App State at NC State	+12.9	+14.0	31–41	2.9	✓	✓
4	Air Force at Nevada	-5.8	-5.5	36–33	2.8	✓	×
4	Texas at Tennessee	-5.5	-5.8	20–17	2.5	✓	✓
4	Colorado State at UTSA	+11.7	+12.5	45–59	2.3	✓	×
4	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+8.0	+7.0	13–23	2.0	✓	✓
4	Colorado at Baylor	+12.0	+9.8	13–23	2.0	✓	✓
4	Sam Houston at Texas Tech	+33.1	+34.8	14–49	1.9	✓	×
4	UConn at Miami (OH)	+4.1	+3.5	21–24	1.1	✓	×
4	Illinois at Ohio State	+24.0	+27.2	19–42	1.0	✓	✓
4	Army at Temple	-4.7	-3.0	21–17	0.7	✓	✓
4	Arizona at Washington State	-9.4	-10.0	34–24	0.6	✓	–
4	Rice at Fresno State	+14.6	+13.5	24–38	0.6	✓	✓
4	Missouri at Mississippi State	+6.6	+6.5	24–31	0.4	✓	✓

Weeks 4-6 · 172 games pooled

Against the spread

80–89–3

47.3%, 95% confidence interval 40%–55%. -16.27 units at −110. Break-even is 52.4%.

Straight-up winner

125–47

72.7%. Picking every market favourite on the same games would have returned 73.3%.

Average margin miss

12.88

points per game, against the market's 12.10 on the same games. Difference +0.78, p = 0.01.

How far off the final margin was

Market spread12.10

Fathom projection12.88

Mean absolute error in points, same games, lower is better. A paired t-test on these two columns gives p = 0.01 — a real difference.

Share of games inside a given margin

Model within 14 points62%

Market within 14 points66%

Model within 7 points34%

Model within 3 points19%

Model bias was +0.28 points — a lean toward the home side.

The model and the market named different winners in 15 of 172 games, and the model was right in 7. That handful of games is the entire straight-up difference between the two — on the other 157 they agreed, so both were graded identically. A sign test on those 15 gives p = 0.70.

Every game, worst miss first

Wk	Game	Projected	Market	Final	Miss	SU	ATS
4	UCLA at Maryland	-2.4	-1.8	54–3	48.6	✓	✓
6	Buffalo at Toledo	17.6–48.1	+20.5	23–8	45.5	×	×
6	San Diego State at Oregon State	19.5–26.4	+14.5	14–66	45.1	✓	×
5	Baylor at Arizona State	23.8–28.2	+3.5	55–19	40.5	×	×
5	Stanford at Wake Forest	18.4–33.5	+12.5	3–57	39.0	✓	✓
5	Virginia at Florida State	29.1–23.8	-2.5	7–38	36.3	×	×
5	Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts	18.6–29.0	+5.5	38–14	34.3	×	×
5	Florida at Missouri	35.3–29.3	-4.0	17–45	34.0	×	×
5	Middle Tennessee at Kansas	14.4–36.3	+20.5	0–55	33.2	✓	✓
6	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	33.2–30.1	-9.8	52–17	31.9	✓	×
6	Minnesota at Purdue	29.8–26.6	-2.5	13–41	31.2	×	×
6	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	21.8–19.6	+7.5	10–38	30.2	×	×
6	South Carolina at Florida	28.0–39.1	+12.5	38–19	30.1	×	✓
5	Memphis at Charlotte	40.3–18.6	-21.0	59–8	29.3	✓	✓
5	Oregon State at Colorado State	34.5–32.5	-4.0	56–26	28.0	✓	×
5	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	11.2–34.8	+14.5	24–20	27.6	×	×
5	Old Dominion at Georgia State	27.6–32.1	-1.5	10–42	27.4	✓	✓
5	Cincinnati at Arizona	30.4–30.9	+7.0	7–34	26.6	✓	×
5	Penn State at Northwestern	25.7–21.7	-3.0	13–34	25.1	×	×
4	Massachusetts at Sacramento State	-4.1	-4.5	35–6	24.9	✓	×
4	Missouri State at SMU	+34.4	+34.8	24–34	24.4	✓	✓
5	Alabama at Mississippi State	41.7–33.0	-6.0	56–23	24.3	✓	✓
6	Wake Forest at NC State	31.4–30.7	-4.0	38–14	23.3	✓	×
6	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	13.4–32.5	+3.5	21–17	23.1	×	×
6	Florida State at Louisville	30.2–31.5	+3.5	20–44	22.7	✓	×
5	Michigan State at Wisconsin	17.6–22.9	+10.0	3–31	22.7	✓	×
4	James Madison at Old Dominion	-3.6	-6.0	46–20	22.4	✓	×
5	UTEP at New Mexico	14.1–46.6	+22.5	7–61	21.5	✓	✓
5	Purdue at Illinois	27.7–41.7	+10.0	24–17	21.0	×	×
4	Delaware at Virginia	+18.1	+19.5	3–42	20.9	✓	×
4	Ole Miss at Florida	+3.3	+3.5	28–52	20.7	✓	×
4	Tulsa at Arkansas	+7.7	+6.8	6–34	20.3	✓	✓
6	Houston at Kansas State	32.1–33.3	+2.5	35–16	20.2	×	✓
6	Sam Houston at Liberty	20.1–31.9	+13.5	3–35	20.2	✓	×
5	Fresno State at Washington State	20.0–19.9	-1.5	26–6	19.9	✓	×
4	Texas A&M at LSU	+9.3	+9.8	6–35	19.7	✓	×
4	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+2.6	+2.5	41–24	19.6	×	×
5	Notre Dame at North Carolina	36.9–6.4	-21.5	37–26	19.5	✓	×
4	San Diego State at Toledo	+5.8	+3.0	16–41	19.2	✓	✓
6	Missouri State at Western Kentucky	28.6–30.8	+2.5	13–34	18.8	✓	×
4	Hawai'i at Wyoming	-1.7	-3.0	10–27	18.7	×	✓
6	Texas A&M at Missouri	26.0–28.3	+3.5	6–27	18.7	✓	×
4	Oregon State at UTEP	-7.4	-10.2	33–7	18.6	✓	×
5	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	29.0–31.4	+1.5	13–34	18.5	✓	✓
5	Akron at Central Michigan	19.3–25.0	+6.0	17–41	18.3	✓	×
4	Louisiana at Charlotte	-8.8	-10.0	34–7	18.2	✓	×
4	South Carolina at Alabama	+12.8	+13.5	18–49	18.2	✓	×
6	James Madison at Georgia Southern	39.4–18.6	-7.5	27–24	17.8	✓	×
4	UNLV at Akron	-10.9	-13.5	38–10	17.1	✓	×
4	Boise State at Western Michigan	-8.0	-7.0	32–7	17.0	✓	✓
6	UCF at Oklahoma State	24.8–22.0	+8.5	28–42	16.8	×	×
4	Oklahoma at Georgia	+11.4	+13.8	13–41	16.6	✓	×
4	Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe	-11.6	-13.5	45–17	16.4	✓	×
5	Temple at South Florida	24.0–36.1	+6.0	17–13	16.2	×	×
6	Southern Miss at Troy	22.4–27.2	+10.0	34–55	16.2	✓	×
6	New Mexico State at Florida International	17.2–20.1	+6.5	3–22	16.1	✓	×
4	Clemson at California	+2.1	-1.2	24–10	16.1	×	×
6	UConn at Temple	29.3–31.1	+3.5	34–20	15.8	×	✓
6	Arizona at West Virginia	33.9–28.6	-3.5	52–31	15.7	✓	✓
6	Nevada at UTEP	28.7–27.1	-9.5	30–13	15.4	✓	×
4	Southern Miss at Tulane	+18.0	+18.5	21–24	15.0	✓	✓
4	Wake Forest at Louisville	+11.9	+12.5	30–27	14.9	×	✓
4	Liberty at Coastal Carolina	-2.2	-2.5	34–17	14.8	✓	×
5	Western Michigan at Buffalo	32.1–14.8	-15.5	20–17	14.3	✓	×
6	UCLA at Oregon	30.0–42.2	+11.5	17–15	14.2	×	×
5	Toledo at Ball State	46.9–17.8	-19.5	39–24	14.1	✓	×
6	Old Dominion at App State	23.1–30.0	+9.5	10–3	13.9	×	✓
6	Virginia Tech at California	34.9–26.1	-9.0	20–25	13.8	×	✓
6	Duke at Georgia Tech	33.3–22.5	-7.0	25–28	13.8	×	×
4	Northwestern at Indiana	+19.8	+20.8	23–29	13.8	✓	✓
5	Liberty at Delaware	26.7–24.3	-7.0	30–14	13.6	✓	×
6	South Alabama at Arkansas State	27.5–34.1	+1.5	56–49	13.5	×	×
6	Texas at Oklahoma	19.8–9.4	-8.5	24–27	13.4	×	×
6	Louisiana at Louisiana Tech	22.6–36.6	+3.0	31–32	13.1	✓	×
4	Wisconsin at Penn State	+8.8	+9.8	24–20	12.8	×	✓
4	Notre Dame at Purdue	-26.2	-27.8	49–10	12.8	✓	×
4	Nebraska at Michigan State	-5.2	-5.5	31–13	12.8	✓	×
4	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-11.5	-12.8	42–18	12.5	✓	×
4	Minnesota at Washington	+9.4	+10.0	27–24	12.4	×	✓
4	Kansas State at Cincinnati	-7.1	-6.2	26–31	12.1	×	×
6	Wyoming at San José State	12.5–21.6	+6.5	16–13	12.1	×	×
5	Maryland at Nebraska	21.6–34.7	+13.5	23–48	11.9	✓	×
6	LSU at Kentucky	32.3–21.4	-8.5	34–35	11.8	×	×
4	Navy at UAB	-7.7	-7.0	20–24	11.7	×	×
6	Iowa at Washington	23.2–17.8	+3.0	41–24	11.6	✓	✓
6	Georgia at Alabama	32.7–40.7	+1.5	20–17	11.1	×	×
6	Kent State at Western Michigan	10.4–30.7	+13.5	7–38	10.8	✓	✓
4	Northern Illinois at Georgia State	+10.3	+10.0	14–35	10.7	✓	✓
6	USC at Penn State	29.2–31.9	+1.5	31–23	10.7	×	×
5	UTSA at Rice	35.6–22.9	-10.5	16–14	10.7	✓	×
4	TCU at UCF	-2.6	-3.2	13–21	10.6	×	✓
6	Central Michigan at Ohio	19.5–26.0	+3.0	14–31	10.5	✓	✓
5	North Texas at Tulsa	35.5–24.0	+2.5	45–44	10.5	✓	✓
4	Georgia Tech at Stanford	-3.5	-3.5	27–34	10.5	×	✓
4	Central Michigan at Miami	+38.9	+41.2	3–52	10.1	✓	×
4	Oregon at USC	-4.1	-3.0	41–27	9.9	✓	✓
5	Marshall at James Madison	12.7–50.4	+16.5	17–45	9.7	✓	✓
6	North Dakota State at UNLV	25.7–22.0	-3.0	7–13	9.7	×	×
5	Michigan at Minnesota	25.6–22.0	-6.5	14–20	9.6	×	✓
6	Air Force at Northern Illinois	31.4–19.8	-7.5	28–7	9.5	✓	✓
4	South Florida at Bowling Green	-17.0	-17.5	14–6	9.0	✓	✓
5	Washington at USC	25.0–37.8	+9.5	21–25	8.8	✓	×
6	Indiana at Nebraska	34.6–23.1	-7.2	20–17	8.5	✓	×
6	Syracuse at Virginia	20.2–31.6	+9.5	25–28	8.4	✓	×
5	Boston College at SMU	15.8–33.1	+20.5	16–25	8.4	✓	✓
5	Ohio at Kent State	35.4–24.1	-5.5	13–10	8.3	✓	×
5	Arkansas at Texas A&M	20.0–38.7	+14.5	7–34	8.2	✓	✓
5	San José State at Hawai'i	23.6–27.8	+3.0	20–16	8.2	×	×
5	West Virginia at Iowa State	22.6–33.7	+1.5	42–45	8.1	✓	✓
4	Utah at Iowa State	-6.5	-7.8	31–17	7.5	✓	×
6	South Florida at UTSA	28.3–28.1	+7.0	24–31	7.2	×	–
6	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	19.3–25.5	-3.0	27–26	7.2	×	✓
6	Ball State at Northwestern	6.2–44.3	+36.5	14–45	7.1	✓	×
4	Ball State at Kent State	+6.0	+3.0	13–26	7.0	✓	✓
6	Tulsa at Navy	20.8–22.0	+2.5	26–34	6.9	✓	×
4	Iowa at Michigan	+5.8	+5.5	20–19	6.8	×	×
6	Tennessee at Arkansas	37.1–23.3	-13.5	24–17	6.8	✓	×
6	Coastal Carolina at Marshall	27.7–28.5	+3.0	27–21	6.8	×	✓
5	Miami at Clemson	38.5–17.1	-17.5	41–13	6.6	✓	✓
6	Stanford at Notre Dame	7.6–52.3	+38.5	7–58	6.3	✓	✓
5	Ohio State at Iowa	28.4–17.5	-13.5	31–14	6.2	✓	×
5	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	25.2–24.3	-1.5	31–24	6.1	✓	×
5	California at UNLV	22.2–24.2	+2.5	31–39	6.0	✓	×
5	UCF at Houston	27.2–31.1	+11.5	17–27	6.0	✓	✓
4	Virginia Tech at Boston College	-12.9	-14.0	21–14	5.9	✓	✓
5	Kentucky at South Carolina	24.5–29.3	+3.5	35–34	5.7	×	×
6	Boise State at Fresno State	25.5–24.1	-6.5	38–31	5.6	✓	×
4	Troy at Utah State	+6.1	+3.0	10–21	4.9	✓	✓
6	Maryland at Ohio State	11.5–45.2	+34.5	16–45	4.7	✓	✓
4	South Alabama at Kentucky	+19.4	+20.5	21–45	4.6	✓	×
4	Houston at Georgia Southern	-18.5	-18.8	42–28	4.5	✓	✓
5	Indiana at Rutgers	44.5–17.0	-23.5	47–15	4.5	✓	✓
5	UL Monroe at South Alabama	21.5–42.7	+14.5	35–52	4.3	✓	✓
4	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+10.2	+9.5	15–21	4.2	✓	×
5	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	32.6–26.4	+4.5	35–33	4.2	✓	✓
6	Tulane at Army	15.1–22.0	+3.0	17–20	3.8	✓	–
5	Texas Tech at Colorado	34.2–15.7	-14.5	29–7	3.5	✓	✓
4	Kennesaw State at Arkansas State	+6.3	+5.8	14–17	3.3	✓	×
5	Wyoming at North Dakota State	4.1–29.0	+20.5	0–28	3.1	✓	✓
6	Kansas at Utah	19.1–39.0	+15.5	24–41	3.0	✓	✓
4	App State at NC State	+12.9	+14.0	31–41	2.9	✓	✓
4	Air Force at Nevada	-5.8	-5.5	36–33	2.8	✓	×
6	Illinois at Michigan State	22.4–24.2	-2.5	38–37	2.8	×	✓
5	Arkansas State at Louisiana	21.2–27.0	+6.5	20–23	2.7	✓	✓
6	Hawai'i at Arizona State	17.3–37.9	+20.5	12–30	2.6	✓	×
4	Texas at Tennessee	-5.5	-5.8	20–17	2.5	✓	✓
5	Syracuse at UConn	27.3–28.8	-5.5	42–41	2.5	×	✓
6	UAB at Memphis	18.2–40.8	+14.0	13–38	2.4	✓	✓
4	Colorado State at UTSA	+11.7	+12.5	45–59	2.3	✓	×
6	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	26.7–23.6	-2.5	20–19	2.1	✓	×
5	Auburn at Tennessee	25.7–33.5	+7.5	14–24	2.1	✓	✓
4	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+8.0	+7.0	13–23	2.0	✓	✓
4	Colorado at Baylor	+12.0	+9.8	13–23	2.0	✓	✓
5	Army at Louisiana Tech	25.5–29.5	-3.5	29–31	2.0	✓	✓
4	Sam Houston at Texas Tech	+33.1	+34.8	14–49	1.9	✓	×
5	Navy at Air Force	29.0–32.6	+2.5	9–14	1.4	✓	✓
5	Louisville at NC State	34.6–36.4	-6.0	28–31	1.2	✓	✓
6	Washington State at Utah State	18.6–18.3	+5.5	16–17	1.2	×	✓
5	Vanderbilt at Georgia	19.2–44.2	+25.5	14–38	1.1	✓	✓
4	UConn at Miami (OH)	+4.1	+3.5	21–24	1.1	✓	×
4	Illinois at Ohio State	+24.0	+27.2	19–42	1.0	✓	✓
6	Rice at East Carolina	13.9–29.0	+10.0	12–28	0.9	✓	✓
5	Utah State at Boise State	11.9–31.6	+21.0	18–37	0.8	✓	✓
4	Army at Temple	-4.7	-3.0	21–17	0.7	✓	✓
4	Arizona at Washington State	-9.4	-10.0	34–24	0.6	✓	–
6	Iowa State at BYU	18.9–32.3	+10.5	10–24	0.6	✓	✓
4	Rice at Fresno State	+14.6	+13.5	24–38	0.6	✓	✓
4	Missouri at Mississippi State	+6.6	+6.5	24–31	0.4	✓	✓
5	Texas State at San Diego State	28.6–30.2	-4.0	29–31	0.4	✓	✓
6	Charlotte at North Texas	16.9–56.4	+28.5	10–50	0.4	✓	✓
6	Eastern Michigan at Akron	28.4–26.5	-7.0	25–23	0.1	✓	✓
5	BYU at TCU	28.7–21.8	-6.5	17–10	0.1	✓	✓