Team Ratings
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Team Ratings — Modeled · Measured · Published
Depth scale
0.0 −35
2.5 −17.5
5.0 average
7.5 +17.5
10.0 +35
FPS — the Fathom Point Scale — places a team's expected margin
against an average FBS team on a neutral field onto a fixed 0–10 scale. The anchors do not
move, so an FPS only changes when
that team plays. Points are the underlying value: subtract two ratings and add home
field (+3.6 this season) to project a game.
All conferences
# Team Conf FPS Points
PPG PA/G
Yds/G Yds/G A
Pass/G Rush/G
Rec GP
Method
Fathom solves for the set of team ratings that best explains every result this season:
rating(home) − rating(away) + home field ≈ actual margin , iterated to convergence.
Margin is capped at 35 points, because the difference between a 40-point win and a 60-point
win is mostly garbage time. Home-field advantage is measured from this season's games rather
than assumed.
Early in a season, results alone say very little — three games against three unconnected
opponents barely identify schedule strength. So each team is anchored to its own final
Fathom rating from last season, with that anchor decaying as real games accumulate
(currently about 25% of a typical team's rating). This was not a cosmetic choice: on
held-out games from 2024 and 2025, adding the anchor cut mean prediction error by 1.2–2.5
points (p < 10⁻⁵), and its advantage disappears by week 6 — which is why it fades.
No betting lines are used anywhere in this rating. North Dakota State and
Sacramento State are new to FBS and have no prior season, so they start from the FBS average.
Games played is shown for every team; a rating built on three games deserves less of your
confidence than one built on ten. Team logos are served by CollegeFootballData.